Prelude
to Disaster
José López Portillo and the Crash of
1976
by
Kate Doyle
The death of former President José López Portillo
on February 17 unleashed a torrent of public rage and bitter obituaries
in the Mexican press. The most prominent opinion makers called
him a Machiavelli, a megalomaniac, a gambler, a disaster; mere
hours after he passed away, politicians were lining up before
the television cameras to offer scathing critiques of his government,
his personality. He did not receive a State funeral.
The anger stemmed not only from the actions - or inactions -
of López Portillo during his sexenio. Yes, he
squandered the wealth of the country's newly discovered oil reserves
through mismanagement and corruption. Yes, he engineered the perpetuation
of the PRI's "perfect dictatorship," while masquerading
as a political reformer. Yes, he led Mexico by the nose into the
most spectacular economic failure of the western hemisphere at
the time, with fiscal policies that culminated in the country's
humiliating bankruptcy and debt crisis of 1982.
But López Portillo also had the singular misfortune of
donning the presidential sash of a nation already on the brink
of economic and political crisis. Through his own flaws he came
to personify what were in fact deeper, mostly hidden cracks emerging
in the regime's structure. Thus he has come to represent more
than the sum total of his regime's bad management and stupid decisions
- JLP is a symbol for the end of prosperity as Mexicans once knew
it, and the inauguration of a prolonged disaster that continues
to resonate in Mexico today.
The political crisis of the JLP era has its roots in the policies
of repression promoted by Díaz Ordaz and Luis Echeverría;
but the first signs of real economic trouble came in 1976, when
the fragility of Mexico's financial system was exposed by the
devaluation of the peso and the debt crisis that followed. We
know today that 1976 was only a prelude to the real crisis, an
ominous warning of what was soon to come. It signaled the end
of Mexico's "economic miracle"- the decay of the country's
industrial plant, the failure of import substitution to stimulate
domestic production, the sustained political resistance to carrying
out tax reform, and the regime's increasing reliance on foreign
borrowing to promote growth.
For this month's article, Archivos Abiertos takes advantage
of a set of extraordinary documents - most of them held in the
Gerald R. Ford presidential library in Ann Arbor, Michigan, others
obtained through the National Security Archive's Freedom of Information
Act requests - to explore the crash of '76. The documents offer
a rare look behind the closed doors of Washington's economic policy
establishment as it struggled to come to terms with the unraveling
of the "Mexican miracle." They also help explain some
of the shock and rage felt by Mexicans today when they recall
the sexenio of a man who presided over the country's economic
undoing.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* * * * * * * * * *
The evaporation of Mexico's economic miracle stunned not only
the Mexican public, but also even the most seasoned analysts of
the Mexican economy. Although the peso's over-valuation was increasingly
obvious during Echeverría's last year in office, many observers
assumed that that the regime would continue its costly foreign
borrowing in the hope that oil revenues would eventually correct
the country's enormous trade imbalances and stabilize the economy.
The profligate domestic spending program of the Echeverría
government, aided and abetted by López Portillo's Finance
Ministry, had sent inflation spiraling into the high double digits
and sparked an unprecedented wave of capital flight, as the private
sector sought to protect its profits. When the peso was finally
allowed to "float" in late August 1976, it went into
a rapid free-fall.
United States opinion of the man who would succeed Echeverría
was generally upbeat at the time, although they had only a sketchy
understanding of his style or his policies. Shortly after he took
office, the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research
wrote a secret report on the new President that emphasized the
positive: "López Portillo brings a variety of experience
and skills to the job. A former professor and Secretary of Finance,
he is an intellectual, a pragmatic, and a skilled administrator
whose personal style is to stress reason and compromise rather
than rhetoric and ideology."
In response to the economic chaos created by the devaluation,
the U.S. government put together a rescue package of funds from
the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve Bank, and supported
the International Monetary Fund in designing a stabilization program
and $1.2 billion loan for Mexico, the country's first in almost
two decades.
Capital flight began to accelerate as the Echeverría administration
entered its final months and market anxieties rose with the country's
inflation rate. In early April 1976, Miguel Mancera Aguayo, then
Deputy Director of the Bank of Mexico [ANTONIO],
contacted the Federal Reserve to request a drawdown of the full
$360 million available to it under its swap arrangement with the
Fed. The move was intended to counter the rapid dwindling of Mexico's
foreign reserves that was underway, as depositors scrambled to
take millions of dollars out of the country daily, a flight of
capital fueled by fear and increasingly untenable government policies.
The Federal Reserve considered the request briefly and agreed
to the swap the next day. In addition to the repeated assurances
they had received from senior economic officials about the government's
intention to slow the outflow of capital by bolstering market
confidence, they looked to the incoming López Portillo
administration to adopt the tougher measures required to improve
the economy.
"For the longer run," wrote Mexico expert Yves Maroni
of the Fed's International Finance Division in a study of economic
developments in Mexico dated April 14, "there are reasons
for somewhat more optimism. A new Administration will take office
in December, following the expected election of former Finance
Minister José López Portillo as President in July.
The change in Administration may be the occasion for the adoption
of stronger anti-inflationary measures if, as seems likely, the
new President's Finance Ministry experience leads him to attach
more importance than his predecessor to the financial consequences
of his political decisions."
It wasn't only the Fed that was optimistic. The Treasury Department
also considered Mexico generally sound. That misunderstanding
was based in part on its ignorance about how the Echeverría
administration was managing the economy. It was also a misreading
of the happy face Mexican officials were putting on the mounting
crisis in conversations with U.S. officials. The United States
was all too willing to believe what it wanted to believe - that
all was well.
When Treasury Secretary William Simon traveled to Latin America
in May 1976 to discuss U.S. economic ties with Chile, Brazil and
Mexico, Mexican Finance Minister Mario Beteta and other officials
easily convinced him of their fiscal prudence. He described his
talks in a memo to President Ford:
The Mexican officials explained to me the measures they are
taking to bring public sector spending under better control. This,
along with limiting wage increases, is the key to Mexico's current
economic program. They indicated that the increase in public sector
expenditures had slowed, revenues had risen and the budget deficit
had been reduced in the first four months of 1976. [. . .] I believe
the Mexican government knows what needs to be done economically,
and I think the prospects are good for a significant reduction
in the level of inflation and in the current account deficit.
The bubble burst on August 31, when the government - reeling
from an unprecedented capital outflow that it had been unable
to staunch - permitted the peso to "float" against the
dollar. Echeverría was forced to repeat the float two months
later, and the peso dropped to half of its original value, causing
havoc in Mexico's private sector. The tempered optimism among
U.S. circles after the first float sank to gloom as the reality
of what now faced the country sank in: severe austerity measures,
drastically reduced public spending, a freeze on wage increases.
CIA produced a dark analysis of developments in Mexico, stamped
secret ("DESTROY WITHIN 90 DAYS") and dated October
30:
President Echeverría has lost the confidence not only
of the business sector as such but also of virtually everyone
who has savings in Mexico. It is not believed that Echeverría
can restore any degree of confidence and therefore stabilization
cannot become effective as long as he remains in office. [. .
.] In the final analysis, some form of stabilization must work,
the only alternative being a rigid dictatorship which would impose
its policies by force as in the Soviet Bloc. We do not foresee
this for Mexico within the time frame of the next several years,
but we do expect further deterioration and high inflation. [.
. .]
Although López Portillo was on the campaign trail and
resolutely silent about the devaluation, the agency pointed out
that he was certainly talking to the President:
López Portillo's private secretary insists his boss
is not exerting any influence at this time. López Portillo
is quoted as saying that Echeverría's authority must not
be diluted and that he, López Portillo, does not want a
piece of an action which he cannot control. On the other hand,
Echeverría and López Portillo have several private
meetings each week, and it is difficult to imagine that there
would be no give-and-take during these get-togethers.
On November 16, members of the Federal Reserve met in secret
to discuss what they called "the Mexican situation."
Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Arthur Burns, opened the
session with a rueful explanation as to why the Fed had agreed
to the swap of $360 million in April, without foreseeing the devaluation
to come.
"The original loan to Mexico of $360 million was not made
by us with due deliberation, with due care. We acted, I think,
a little mechanically," Burns commented. "The fact of
the matter is that we were poorly informed about Mexico's financial
condition, and I'm not proud of the way in which we conducted
ourselves."
The repercussions of refusing to aid Mexico were, however, dangerous,
said Burns. Not only were U.S. private banks highly vulnerable
through their loans Mexico (which, by November, were estimated
to be in the neighborhood of about $12-$15 billion), but in the
event that Mexico might be forced to halt payments, a move that
might ripple around the globe with lasting damage to the world
economy.
Burns: Now I haven't found anyone who anticipated
a depreciation of the Mexican peso of 50 percent or over. The
financial policies conducted by that country have been scandalous;
we were inadequately informed. [. . .] The long and the short
of it is that Mexico may be very close to bankruptcy. I mean by
that the enormous foreign debts Mexico has contracted - it is
by no means clear that Mexico will be able to service those debts
and the moratorium may need to be declared. [. . .] Now that would
be a most unfortunate development because our banks are heavily
involved in lending to Mexico. And of course it could set off
moratoria elsewhere around the world.
With the advice of an internal subcommittee of members designated
to negotiate the details of the U.S. loan package to Mexico, the
Fed agreed to provide up to $150 million, matching another $150
million from the Treasury.
Burns: Now you might wonder why we should
make a loan in a case of a country the prospects of which are
so gloomy. [. . .] The factor that led me finally to conclude
that it was desirable - I believe that other members of the sub-committee
were governed by similar thoughts - was that if Mexico were to
declare a moratorium in the near future, having received no help
at all from this central bank, then we would inevitably share
a certain responsibility for the collapse and for the difficulties
that would be caused to our commercial banks. [. . .] But there
is - a new government will come into power and that of course
influenced our thinking to a degree and if a reflow of capital
took place Mexico could straighten out its affairs; if a reflow
doesn't take place then I am afraid Mexico will go down the drain.
Although little was known about the incoming President, the Fed
looked to his inauguration with anticipation, hoping for relief
from the Echeverría's unwillingness to adopt the austerity
measures considered necessary to reverse the tide. Henry C. Wallich,
member of the Board of Governors and a negotiator on the Fed's
Mexico subcommittee, described that hope, perversely citing López
Portillo's experience as Finance Minister as reason for optimism.
Wallich: Now as to the future, the Chairman
has described the situation, a new government is coming in and
the President López Portillo is a former Finance Minister.
It is hoped that he will inspire confidence. His views are not
100 percent known and there is some apprehension [that] they might
lean in the direction of agricultural reform and other things
that would certainly not add to confidence. [But] the [International
Monetary] Fund thinks that the situation is manageable, if they
decide to do the right things, that is, cut down on government
expenditures and keep wages from rising unreasonably. On both
fronts so far they have not performed very well.
Members of the Fed remained concerned about the exposure of the
U.S. private banking sector in Mexico, and the possible interpretation
by commercial banks of the Board's willingness to intervene in
the crisis. Philip E. Coldwell of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank,
raised the issue with the Chairman:
Coldwell: Was there a consideration that
our participation as an official body might have encouraged other
people to lend?
Burns: No, no, oh no, but - well, we thought
long and hard about that and the last thing we would have wanted
to do or did do was to give Mexico a loan and have Mexico use
that as a basis for borrowing from the commercial banks and therefore
be indirectly responsible for drawing in the commercial banks.
We did not fall into any such trap.[. . .] We could advise the
banks to - and we could advise them strongly - to cut back on
their foreign lending. If we did that we run the risk [of provoking]
the very crisis in international finance that we are seeking to
prevent. I'm not talking about Mexico; I'm talking about all around
because our banks have in my judgment been rather imprudent once
again in lending abroad. [. . .] In some meetings with private
bankers I tried to deal with the question lightly and indicated
this is an area that bankers must consider carefully. [. . .]
I have never said to anyone - to answer your question specifically
- that banks should not lend to Mexico. I haven't singled out
Mexico.
Paul Volcker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
and soon to become Chairman of the Fed - where he would preside
over the 1982 crisis - was given the last word during the meeting.
He explained that the Mexican crash took place within the context
of broader financial strains worldwide, as the United States and
other nations struggled with global recession.
Volcker: I think what we are seeing here
is the symptom of general strains and tensions around the world
that are going to be difficult to manage. They will be difficult
in this case, they may be difficult in other cases, and I fell
strongly there is nothing we can walk away from and we will be
called upon from time to time for this kind of difficult operation
- in Mexico, in this case - maybe there won't be any others, but
I suspect there could be. It seems to me a very modest kind of
effort on our part. [. . .]
Burns: I would second that comment - that
it's a situation we can't walk away from.
The decision to devalue fatally undermined the credibility of
the Echeverría administration, which had made repeated
public assurances that there would be no devaluation. In the wake
of the float, it was clear that Echeverría was also unwilling
to implement the austerity policies required to stabilize the
country's fiscal standing. As Robert Hormats, an economic analyst
on the staff of President Gerald Ford's National Security Council,
pointed out two weeks after the devaluation, "The measure
can only improve Mexico's international economic position if followed
by appropriate corrective domestic policies. But such policies
do not appear to have been devised as yet. The burden will fall
on President-elect López Portillo."
It was a burden the López Portillo could not bear. He
proved incapable of marshalling the political and economic courage
required to stabilize the country. By the time he left office
six years later, Washington's opinion of the "skilled administrator"
had plummeted into dismay and open contempt. Reviewing his most
spectacular failure - the collapse of the Mexican economy - the
CIA could barely contain its disgust in describing the contribution
that the former President made to the country's near-bankruptcy.
In a secret intelligence assessment produced just over a year
after Miguel de la Madrid took office ("The Outlook for Mexico,"
April 25, 1984), the agency observed:
Pressures on former President López Portillo to increase
public spending became irresistible after Mexico became a net
oil exporter, but the former President's tendency toward grandiose
scheming contributed significantly to the disastrous boom and
bust cycle that followed. [. . .] Virtually all social and economic
groups have had to accept declining standards of living, scale
down their expectations, and compete for benefits and opportunities
in a negative sum economic environment. De la Madrid has struggled
to preserve social equilibrium and to restore public confidence
in the political system. In particular, he has endeavored to distance
himself from the egregious corruption and failures of López
Portillo and other senior officials of the last government.
The legacy would outlive the man, as the cascade of negative
obituaries in the Mexican press would prove after he died last
month.
Note: The following documents are in PDF format.
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Documents
Document
1
September 23, 1975
Supplementary Bio Data on José López-Portillo,
PRI's Candidate for Presidency of Mexico
U.S. Embassy in Mexico, confidential cable
In a biographical sketch of López Portillo, the Embassy
concedes that as Secretary of Treasury under President Luis Echeverría,
López Portillo "did not use his personal influence
with the president sufficiently to oppose the deficit spending
in this administration," which led to high rates of inflation.
Nevertheless, embassy officials remain confident that the new
candidate will be a capable leader.
Source: Released to National Security Archive under the Freedom
of Information Act
FOIA Request No. 19138, released March 1999
Document
2
September 24, 1975
Echeverría's Probable Successor: INR Special Analysis
State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research, confidential
cable
The Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) offers a brief,
positive analysis of the "surprise choice" of the Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) for the next president. José
López Portillo, the INR predicts, will largely follow in
his predecessor's footsteps, "using monetary and fiscal policies
to achieve long-range goals of social betterment and economic
development."
Source: Released to National Security Archive under the Freedom
of Information Act
FOIA Request No. 19138, released March 1999
Document
3
September 30, 1975
Why López Portillo?
U.S. Embassy in Mexico, confidential cable
With infighting plaguing several possible PRI candidates for
the upcoming presidential election, Echeverría decided
to name his old friend and Finance Minister José López
Portillo. In scrutinizing the reasons for his choice, the Embassy
opines that Echeverría sought, first and foremost, the
"maintenance of unity within the political elite." The
cable considers JLP likely to seek to change the underlying inequities
of the Mexican system, but warns that "serious efforts by
the next administration to effect real change in the system and
to narrow the gap between Mexico's privileged and underprivileged
classes, would inevitably produce some kind of friction, turmoil
and resistance on the part of those with most to lose. "
Source: Released to National Security Archive under the Freedom
of Information Act
FOIA Request No. 19138, released March 1999
Document
4
April 8, 1976
Request for $360 Million Swap Drawing by Bank of Mexico
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, confidential memorandum
As Echeverría's tenure draws to a close, investors are
jittery over increased capital flight, dwindling national reserves,
and rumors of an imminent peso devaluation. Nevertheless, in this
memo economic analyst Scott E. Pardee of the Federal Reserve Bank
of New York accepts reassurances from Bank of Mexico officials
that the crisis is "manageable" and that "there
is no reason for the peso to be devalued." After a brief
internal consultation, the Fed decides to approve Mexico's request
to draw down the full $360 million available under its swap arrangement
with the Federal Reserve.
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Released May 1995
Document
5
April 14, 1976
Recent Economic and Financial Developments in Mexico and Prospects
for 1976-77
Federal Reserve Board, restricted report
This report, prepared just after the approval of the $360 million
loan, points out the tell-tale signs of economic trouble on the
horizon. The past two years in Mexico have witnessed a slowed
growth rate, rising rates of inflation, increased public spending,
and a decline in exports, offset only by the rise in petroleum
exports. Yet the incoming administration of López Portillo
is seen as a reason for optimism. As a former finance minister,
López Portillo may be expected to "attach more importance
than his predecessor to the financial consequences of his political
decisions."
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Released May 1995
Document
6
May 24, 1976
Trip to Chile, Brazil and Mexico
Secretary of the Treasury, eyes only memorandum
Treasury Secretary William E. Simon returns from a trip to Mexico,
Chile and Brazil "optimistic" about the future economic
prospects for Latin America. Despite continued rumors in Mexico
of an imminent peso devaluation, Simon tells President Gerald
Ford in this memo that the Mexican government "knows what
needs to be done economically" and sees Mexico's new status
as an oil exporter as a herald of better times to come.
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Released October 1993
Document
7
September 14, 1976
The Mexican Float - Many Unanswered Questions
National Security Council, memorandum
Two weeks after Echeverría's decision to permit the peso
to float, the repercussions of the devaluation are beginning to
sink in. National Security Council analyst Robert Hormats notes
that upon assuming office López Portillo will need to impose
austerity measures with a firm hand: "Insufficient control
will simply re-create the conditions which lead to the crisis."
These tough measures, such as holding down wages, will inevitably
strain López Portillo's first months in office, warns Hormats,
and may eventually swell immigration to the United States.
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Document
8
September 20, 1976
Financial Arrangements with Mexico
Secretary of the Treasury, memorandum
As Mexican foreign exchange reserves continue to plummet, the
U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve approve an additional $600 million
in loans to stabilize the economy until the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) can supply Mexico with credit. The crisis will inevitably
make the next few years difficult: "The necessary adjustments
will not be easy, and there will be individuals and sectors of
the Mexican economy who will be hurt in the process." The
Treasury hopes these additional funds will serve as a buffer against
the internal political pressures that may threaten to destabilize
the new administration.
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Document
9
October 8, 1976
Comments on the Mexican Program in the Light of Recent Developments
Federal Reserve Board, restricted report
The economic situation in Mexico deteriorates, beset by general
panic, runs on the bank, and public fury at the Echeverría
administration for devaluing the peso after repeated assurances
to the contrary. Although Mexico has now negotiated a three-year
plan with the IMF, this will only begin to take effect after López
Portillo assumes office on January first. "Apparently, outgoing
president Echeverría was willing to take the blame for
the devaluation, but not for the austerity measures which the
situation requires," writes Fed analyst and Mexico expert
Yves Maroni.
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Document
10
October 26, 1976
Views of [excised] that Mexico's Economic Situation will Continue
to Deteriorate
Central Intelligence Agency, [classification excised] intelligence
information cable
The CIA station in Mexico City cites sources calling Mexico's
economic situation "bleak," noting that the lack of
public confidence in the current government is a major problem.
Echeverría has handled the situation poorly, the devaluation
itself will produce further problems, and the president-elect
will enter office politically restrained from taking a hard economic
line. "Lopez-Portillo will be able to do little to stop this
recession/inflation spiral and his policies to counteract this
problem will probably not produce the desired results." The
cable predicts that, should López Portillo fail to take
strong measures, another devaluation is likely within the next
few years.
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Released August 1995
Document
11
October 29, 1976
Notes on Meeting on the Mexican Economic Situation
Federal Reserve Board, restricted memorandum
Notes of a meeting between officials of the Federal Reserve,
Treasury Department and IMF held on the day of Mexico's second
peso devaluation reveal the United States' changing evaluation
of the economic situation in Mexico since the crisis began. As
one official notes, "he had gone from elation to gloom and
was now in the middle." The document captures the limited
knowledge the U.S. and IMF had of the situation. As they grope
toward an assessment of the crisis, the officials complain of
their difficulty in obtaining reliable information from the Mexican
government: "At the meeting, it was generally agreed that
everyone had received glowing reports on what was happening on
the fiscal policy front, but no one had any specifics."
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Released April 1996
Document
12
October 30, 1976
Mexican Economic Situation
Central Intelligence Agency, secret memorandum
This document captures the way the peculiarities of the Mexican
political system can exacerbate economic crisis. Economic policy,
"like any other policy," is determined directly by the
President. Yet by now Echeverría has lost all credibility
and will not be able to stabilize the economy before leaving office.
Any substantive measures will thus be left to López Portillo,
yet the art of presidential transition requires him to maintain
a low profile. "Lopez-Portillo is quoted as saying that Echeverría's
authority must not be diluted and that he, Lopez-Portillo, does
not want a piece of an action which he cannot control." Consequently,
whatever real communication takes place between the outgoing and
incoming presidents is hidden from the public eye.
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Document
13
November 1, 1976
Foreign Exchange Developments in 1976
U.S. Embassy in Mexico, secret cable
In this lengthy cable, the U.S. Embassy evaluates the Bank of
Mexico's current foreign reserves, which have dropped by about
of $1.3 billion since the beginning of the year. The cable reiterates
that one of the key problems faced by U.S. officials in deciding
how to respond to the Mexican request for aid has been secrecy.
Information on issues such as Bank of Mexico transactions with
public enterprises, for example, is "not readily available,"
and reconciling discrepancies in financial data can only be done
"with a major effort."
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Released May 1996
Document
14
November 2, 1976
Mexico's External Debt and US Bank Exposure
U.S. Embassy in Mexico, secret cable
In a cable to the Treasury Department, the Embassy's economic
attaché estimates that Mexico's external debt now stands
at more than $25 billion. Bank of Mexico officials believe that
U.S. private banks hold as much as 70 percent of that debt, indicating
the extreme vulnerability of U.S. financial institutions to the
Mexican crisis.
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Released May 1996
Document
15
November 4, 1976
Summary of Recent Information on the Mexican Economic Situation
Federal Reserve Board, restricted memorandum
Reflecting on the possible ramifications of the second peso devaluation,
the Fed's Yves Maroni notes that the Echeverría government's
increasing impotence and the absence of any information about
what steps José López Portillo may take as President
have further damaged the economic situation. Although an agreement
has been signed between the IMF and the Mexican government which
should provide some relief, the existence of the arrangement is
not widely known in Mexico, and "ignorance fuels lack of
confidence."
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Document
16
November 5, 1976
Mexican Swap
Federal Reserve Board, memorandum
As the peso crisis continues, the Federal Reserve Board and the
Treasury Department consider whether to approve a joint $300 million
loan to the Mexican government. In this memo discussing conditions
that may apply to the loan, Henry C. Wallich, head of the Fed's
Mexico subcommittee, weighs the impact the Mexican crisis may
have on the U.S. banking sector. While Wallich sees no immediate
threat, he concedes that there is "a latent and very serious
threat" in the background.
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Document
17
November 16, 1976
[Discussion of the Mexican Crisis]
Federal Reserve Board, meeting transcript
[Extract: Tape 6]
This informal transcript of a taped secret meeting on the Mexican
economic crisis offers a rare glimpse of the discussions held
by the Federal Reserve Board as members tried to decide how to
act. Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board Arthur Burns, head
of the Mexico subcommittee Henry Wallich and president of the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Paul Volcker all weigh in on
the Fed's decision to approve loans to Mexico. They concede that
the central bank's decision to approve of the $360 million draw
down in April was made without adequate information or analysis.
The most recent loan of $150 million was approved after more deliberation,
considering aspects such as the large debt held by U.S. banks,
the possible ripple effects of a Mexican default on loan repayments
around the world, and the hope that new President José
López Portillo would "inspire confidence."
Source: Gerald R. Ford Library
Released May 1995
Document
18
April 25, 1984
The Outlook for Mexico [extract]
Central Intelligence Agency, secret national intelligence estimate
In striking contrast to Washington's favorable early assessments
of López Portillo, this heavily redacted national intelligence
estimate of 1984 blasts the former president for his flagrant
misuse of oil money, extravagant foreign borrowing, and bloated
public spending. Although by the late 1970s the currency was again
substantially overvalued, López Portillo "stubbornly
refused to devalue the peso until 1982," bringing on the
massive financial crisis that effectively forced Mexico to declare
its bankruptcy before its foreign lenders.
Source: Available on the CIA Web site, FOIA Electronic Reading
Room
Released December 1998